Archive for January, 2012
Can Ron Paul extend beyond his libertarian base? He did in New Hampshire
The media story for Ron Paul is high floor, low ceiling–that he can’t reach beyond his loyal libertarian base. Karl Rove made this case in his post-Iowa column in the Wall Street Journal:
Because he has a high floor of support but also a very low ceiling, Texas Congressman Ron Paul is likely to have seen his high-water mark Tuesday. The results provided him little that helps him broaden his support in New Hampshire and subsequent primaries.
Now we have exit polls in New Hampshire to test Rove’s claim.
First, Ron Paul doubled his 2008 vote total in Iowa, but tripled his New Hampshire total, gaining over his previous high-water mark. And relative to the fiscally conservative, socially liberal/moderate voters we identified in our studies on the “Libertarian Vote,” Ron Paul seems to have over-performed in New Hampshire among several demographics:
- Moderates/liberals on fiscal issues: Ron Paul took 28% compared to Romney’s 34%;
- Conservatives on social issues: Paul got 16% compared to Santorum’s 22%;
- Evangelical/born-again: Paul took 21% compared to Santorum’s 23%;
- “Is true conservative” most important: Paul won 41%, compared to Iowa, where he only won 37%;
- High school or less education: Paul won 26% compared to 23% with more than high school (data show libertarians have higher education than average); and
- Decided within last week: Paul won 19% compared to only 11% in Iowa.
Late deciders are particularly telling. If it were true that Ron Paul draws from only an ultra-loyal base, logically, these voters should have made up their mind long ago. Instead, Paul gained over his Iowa totals among late deciders. Nearly one in five voters who decided within the last week picked Ron Paul. Many of these may well be fiscal moderates or liberals.
New Hampshire seems to be evidence that Paul is gaining beyond his libertarian base.
Is Support for the Tea Party Declining? No.
A few weeks ago, the New York Times and other media outlets reported on a new Pew study purportedly showing declining support for the Tea Party. But according to Washington Post/ABC News polling, support for the Tea Party has ranged between 42 and 47 percent from April through December 2011–statistically about the same. If you go back further, Washington Post polls found 27 percent support in May 2010 and 38 percent support in October 2010, when many people didn’t know about the Tea Party. If anything, support has increased or leveled off. See Question 25:
Q25. On another subject, what is your view of the Tea Party political movement – would you say you support it strongly, support it somewhat, oppose it somewhat or oppose it strongly?
-------- Support -------- --------- Oppose -------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
12/18/11 42 13 28 45 20 26 13
11/3/11 43 14 29 44 20 24 13
10/2/11 42 12 30 47 20 27 11
9/1/11 47 13 35 45 18 27 8
7/17/11 44 13 31 46 23 24 10
6/5/11 46 13 33 44 21 24 10
4/17/11 42 16 26 49 21 27 10
10/3/10 38 13 25 36 28 18 26
5/5/10 27 17 10 24 11 13 44
*Note slightly different question wording 10/3/10 and 5/5/10
So who’s right, Pew or WashingtonPost?
Depends on which question framing you like better. Pew’s question asks respondents whether they agree/disagree with the Tea Party, and Washington Post asks respondents whether they support/oppose, strongly/somewhat. That’s a subtle but important difference. The agree/disagree framing is more binary and forces a choice as if the Tea Party stands for one thing. Washington Post’s question allows for a respondent who, say, supports the Tea Party on spending cuts, but doesn’t agree with the Tea Party on some other issue. Such a respondent could “somewhat support.” That allows for a wider range of opinions. And notice that respondents who say “no opinion” is higher with the Pew questions, usually a sign that respondents reject the question frame or that it doesn’t accurately capture how people think about it.
