Archive for September, 2010
GOP chances of retaking Senate still a long-shot
Looking at last night’s election returns, the media story has been about a Tea Party “coup,” particularly the upset by Christine O’Donnell over GOP-favorite Mike Castle in Delaware. GOP strategists argued that O’Donnell couldn’t win in the general, and that Republicans would forfeit their chances of retaking the Senate.
Well, now that the Intrade markets have settled down, we can look to see how much Republican’s chances have really changed. In the last 24 hours, the price for the contract that the Republicans control the Senate went from 26 to 21. In odds, the market is saying that the GOPs chances of retaking the senate have gone from roughly 3 to 1, to 4 to 1.
Yes, their chances have decreased. But it was a long shot, and it still is.
I’m sorry, I have jerk syndrome
Tyler points out another instance of the perceived-handicap-is-actually-an-advantage meme of which he is the master. In this case it’s artist Chuck Close, whose prosopagnosia may contribute to his amazing portraiture skills. (I saw the excellent Close exhibit at the Corcoran last weekend. No reason for you to know that, just signaling.)
Prosopagnosia is often referred to as “face blindness.” It is the inability to distinguish people or remember people’s faces. Now, if you’re like me, you don’t have prosopagnosia, but you have a terrible memory, especially for remembering persons you’ve met. In my line of work I meet lots and lots of people. I might meet someone at a reception, shake their hand, and chat for a long while, then a month later meet them again and have no recollection of who they are. This is a social fois pas and because this often happens to me, I am likely considered a heel and inconsiderate.
If I told you, however, that I suffer from prosopagnosia, you would feel–if not exactly pity–understanding. In fact, this happened to me recently. At a party earlier this year I said hello to someone from who I had not too long before that been sat across at a dinner party. He apologized, told me he didn’t know who I was, and that he has prosopagnosia. A lightbulb went off in my head and you can see where this is going.
If I told someone, “I’m sorry but I don’t like social situations and I have a terrible memory, so I don’t remember you,” I would be a jerk. This is so even though I’m exhibiting the same symptoms of prosopagnosia. But if I said I had the condition, all would be excused and the person would gladly remind me of how we had met, which would be appreciated. So we excuse a behavior when its cause is some diagnosed brain damage, but condemn it when it’s cause is just the way we’re wired.
Question time: How ethical would it be if I started claiming that I had prosopagnosia? (Not even a little bit, huh?) Is there a name for some other lesser condition that describes general social anxiety and terrible memory? Can we coin one?
Relationship between spontaneous order and creation?
Stephen Hawking’s new book, The Grand Design, has been making news. He argues that the fundamental physics of the universe don’t require a creator, rather universes can be created spontaneously. You can get a flavor of the book’s argument from Hawking’s op-ed in this past weekends WSJ. Cosmologist Lawrence Krauss at Arizona State University has another WSJ op-ed today explaining more.
I don’t pretend to fully understand all the physics here, and I look forward to reading the book. But for free market types, this idea of spontaenous creation intuitively jives with the principle from economics of spontaneous order–the idea that the order we observe in the marketplace doesn’t require a planner, but instead can emerge spontaneously.
Beyond markets, scholars have used spontaneous order to describe complex phenomena from language to evolution. However, I’m not aware of any research that explores the interconnection between spontaneous order and spontaneous creation of the universe. Can anyone point me in right direction?
Fewer Young Voters Self-Identify as Democrats
The New York Times reports that fewer young people (ages 18-29) self-identify as Democrats. Based on Pew data, the percentage of young people who identify or lean Democrat has dropped from 62 percent at the peak in July 2008 to 54 percent late last year.
While the bad economy and lack of jobs is no doubt weighing heavily on young people’s minds, this raises a question. If many young people lean Democrat, but when the economy is bad lean Republican, what exactly are they?
In the “Libertarian Vote in Age of Obama,” David Boaz and I presented evidence that many of these young people can fairly be called libertarian–that is socially liberal, but fiscally conservative. True, many young libertarians got swept up in the excitement over the Obama campaign, voting 59 percent for Obama to 36 percent McCain. But, we argued, all the talk of a generational realignment towards Obama and the Democrats was premature.
This generation of young people are particularly prone to disillusionment. And we hypothesized that if the economy stayed bad, many young people, particularly the more libertarian young people, would sour on Obama and jump ship. Perhaps we’re now seeing some evidence that confirms this.
However, I don’t think Republicans are out of the woods yet. Even if young people vote against Democrats in 2010, Republicans will need to provide a credible alternative that addressed the concerns of a more libertarian-leaning generation of potential young voters. This will be a long-term challenge for a Republicans.
