The GOP, standing athwart history yelling “A Gallup poll of 1,033 Americans indicates…”

Daniel Rothschild
March 25th, 2010
Politics

I wrote earlier this week about why I thought that Republican rallying cries against the health care bill showed a decidedly anti-conservative willingness to allow angry mobs and whims reflected in public opinion polls to dictate public policy. Well, as we see now, they also rest on very shaky foundations.

A USA Today/Gallup poll released on Tuesday shows that a plurality of Americans, um, now support the bill:

By 49%-40%, those polled say it was “a good thing” rather than a bad one that Congress passed the bill. Half describe their reaction in positive terms — as “enthusiastic” or “pleased” — while about four in 10 describe it in negative ways, as “disappointed” or “angry.”

The largest single group, 48%, calls the legislation “a good first step” that needs to be followed by more action. And 4% say the bill itself makes the most important changes needed in the nation’s health care system.

So, I suppose in the GOP world of polling-led policy analysis, this must mean that Congress acted as an opinion leader rather than an opinion follower. And presumably, since today Americans now tell pollsters that they support the bill, it’s a fine thing. The conservative Media Research Center plays into the hands of the Administration by keeping the debate about polling numbers going. (Curiously, the post never used the phrase “margin of error.”)

Well done, GOP. You staked your claim against health care not on the merits of the bill but on the assertion that the American people didn’t want it. And that rationale has fallen apart just hours after the president signed the bill into law. The ink was hardly dry from the 22 ceremonial signing pens before your rationale for opposing the bill evaporated. You engaged this debate on process and procedure rather than substance. You lost on the first count and didn’t have much meaningful to say about the second.

The result is that the “repeal and replace” agenda is dead. Unless, of course, the polls shift again.

Either way, the GOP has decided to stand athwart history yelling, “A recent poll shows 53 percent of likely voters want history to stop or slow down!”

Inspiring.

David Kirby

Careful Dan, this Gallup poll is a instant reaction, one-day poll, skewed to those who were home Monday night when Gallup called. It’s not surprising that these respondents would be more favorable given the media reports on Monday. You’ll get a better read as polls continue through the week. More on the Gallup poll .
davidrkirby

Careful Dan, this Gallup poll is a instant-reaction, one-day poll, skewed to those who were home Monday night when Gallup called. It's not surprising that these folks would be more favorable, given the media coverage Monday. You'll get a more accurate read from polls conducted throughout the week. More on the Gallup poll here: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/about_that_gallup…
danrothschild

David, that may be true. But whether the poll is a fair reflection of the populace as a whole — at this moment in time — is a secondary consideration. My point is that the GOP, in the final days and weeks of the debate, planted their flag on the proposition that the American people didn't like the reform. They did not make a stand, with the exception of a few (mostly junior) members, on the merits of the bill. By making the debate about polling rather than the merits of the bill, they ceded the latter to the administration. As soon as a plurality of the populace supports the reforms, regardless of whether this poll is fair, the GOP has by its own terms lost. It's hard to characterize yourself a party of ideas when you make your philosophical and political claims based on polling data.
http://sometimesright.com/2010/03/the-angry-rorschach-movement/ The angry Rorschach movement / Sometimes Right

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